NPD-RiskAssessor™ Statistical Model

RiskAssessorReport1NPD-RiskAssessorTM is a statistical model and team process for license.  Clients gain use of NPD-RiskAssessorTM as a secure, online “Software as a Service”, through integration with other NPD software and an onsite service for cross functional team building.  The model is based on extensive and validated research regarding a statistically significant sample of NPD successes and NPD failures.  In practice this powerful tool enables articulation of project details in assessing and quantifying NPD risks, drives important inputs to project screening, provides statistical “Systemic Risk” analysis of NPD Portfolios, and facilitates project leaders in quickly advancing a shared cross-functional understanding about a specific project.

NPD-RiskAssessorTM  analyzes the risk of a new product development project much in the same way a bank assesses a person’s ability to pay back a mortgage.  The bank collects information on such items as age, credit rating, education, annual income, job history, value of a current home, and the value of the new home.  The bank then places these values into an algorithm that, based on a statistically large sample of previous home buyers, determines the likelihood that the mortgage will be paid.  While the bank wants to know all of the factors, it only cares about the probability that they will be paid back.

In the model, certain factors (numerical responses) are captured via an online survey or printed questionnaire.  These numbers and qualitative inputs reflect each person’s perceptions of the NPD project.  The NPD-RiskAssessorTM  model then uses an algorithm to compare the project against previous new product development projects.  The output from RiskAssessorTM  reveals where risk is coming from on the project, and to what degree such risk affects the likelihood of success.

Online SaaS

Inputting data and insights is fast and easy.  Team members or other respondents receive an email with instructions to click on a link to a secure NPD-RiskAssessorTM input form.  Once at the site, they merely state their name and enter their responses.  This usually takes between fifteen and twenty minutes. For the thirty factors in the NPD-RiskAssessorTM model, respondents input a numerical rating, a numerical confidence and comments about the project as it relates to the specific factor.   In addition, the online survey also gathers qualitative statements and perceptions about project issues, magnitude, training, target markets and product definitions.

Once completed by the respondents, NPD-RiskAssessorTM compiles a comprehensive report for delivery to each respondent.  This report, delivered as an Adobe pdf file, provides a full run of the statistical model plus a compilation of all qualitative inputs.  This report is then used as input to a team review, and if desired, joined through teleconference by an Adept Group expert.  Such review meetings are designed to last approximately 2 hours.   During this meeting, the Adept Group expert will facilitate full review of the projects.  (non-disclosure agreements are signed upon initiation of the service).

After most reviews a second run of the model often occurs, taking into account those findings and shared learnings gained from the first run.  Here, respondents simply update their evaluation scores and the model is “run” again.  The report form the second run typically does not include qualitative comments.  It too is delivered as an Adobe pdf, followed by a one hour teleconference with the Adept Group expert.

Online NPD-RiskAssessorTM is an easy, low time consuming means for managers and teams to gain a full view and understanding of their projects risks


Onsite NPD-RiskAssessorTM Team Process

The NPD-RiskAsessorTM Team Process is a service conducted onsite with NPD teams.  It help cross-functional teams achieve high performance very quickly.   Because time-to-market is a key contributor for increasing the strategic impact of new products, cross-functional teams must rapidly develop a shared mission and common vision of issues and actions.  This may be accomplished quickly by using the validated NPD-RiskAssessor TM  model, in conjunction with tried and true team building techniques.

  • Use the validated statistical model of new product success and failure to reach a common vision about commercialization strengths and weaknesses
  • Overcome the challenge of reaching high performance when perspectives and insights differ across functions
  • Leverage team building principles in the context of specific project issues
  • Understand all of the key factors influencing the likelihood of commercial success or failure
  • Address the critical shortcomings and exploit the strengths of a project

The central event in the NPD-RiskAssessorTM Team Process is an onsite team meeting, led by a trained and experienced facilitator.  Typically lasting four to six hours, an expert facilitates directs dialogue using the NPD-RiskAssessorTM report so as to “peel apart” all aspects of the project and drive the team through any conflict (think storming, norming and performing). During the meeting a second iteration of the model is conducted but using new insights shared in the meeting.   This second iteration then points the team to specific actions to exploit opportunities and mitigate risks

NPD-RiskAssessorTM Integration 

The NPD-RiskAssessorTM is designed to be integrated with other software used for new product development and portfolio management support.  Using XML and systems calls, data may be moved from seamlessly one application to another. This means that a common, cross-organizational approach to real-time risk assessment can be embedded directly into all systems support for both single-project stage gate process management and mufti-project portfolio management .

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