Delphi Method
In Ancient Greek, no major decision was made without consulting the Oracle of Delphi. The Oracle had knowledge to foretell the future.
Today, the Delphi method seeks insight to the future through a series of forecast-relevant questionnaires sent to a panel of experts Compiled results of each questionnaire are resubmitted in new questionnaire to the expert panel. End of method findings may also be reinterpreted as predicted changes in a metric’s value.
Keys to success include:
- Deep understanding of what you’re investigating or hoping to predict.
- Build out of a model of how questionnaire results may influence performance measures and metrics
- Selection and consistency of a Panel of Experts representing needed thought worlds.
- Form and presentation of questions and form and presentation of results
- Annual model corrections and refinement based on actuals and predicted values.
